Strategic Decision-Making in Presidential Nominations: When and Why Party Elites Decide to Support a Candidate by Kenny J. Whitby

Author:Kenny J. Whitby [Whitby, Kenny J.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, Political Process, Campaigns & Elections, Political Parties
ISBN: 9781438449203
Google: PF_kmwEACAAJ
Amazon: B00HQ2TWVI
Barnesnoble: B00HQ2TWVI
Goodreads: 26795665
Publisher: SUNY Press
Published: 2014-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

The Primary Season and Superdelegate Endorsements

Previous research on endorsements during the primary season has focused on the effects of endorsements on primary outcomes. In particular, this line of investigation is based on the notion that endorsements should have their greatest effect in low-information environments such as primary contests where party cues are absent and issue differences between candidates within the party are small. As noted previously, Josh Ryan’s investigation of superdelegate endorsements during the 2008 primary season found mixed evidence that timing is a factor in party elite endorsements. In general, previous studies reveal that elite endorsements during the nomination process have significant effects on primary outcomes. Wayne Steger’s analysis of primary elections from 1980 to 2004 found that endorsements by “elite party elected officials” are important predictors of primary outcomes. He writes that they “appear to have a potent signaling effect on the partisan electorate as to which candidates should be supported.”23 Marty Cohen and associates also found that endorsements were important predictors of success in presidential primaries. Their analysis covering the same period as Steger’s research shows that endorsements do increase the share of support won by candidates in state primaries.24 Other studies suggest that the effects may be indirect. A recent study of elite and group endorsements in the 2008 primaries by Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Bruce W. Hardy highlights the role of mass media in magnifying voters’ knowledge of endorsements. Analyzing data from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Study, they demonstrated that mass media are a primary vehicle for increasing voters’ knowledge of endorsements in low-information settings. The authors conclude that the influence of endorsements on voters’ perception of candidates is indirect and is predicated on voters’ consumption and knowledge of endorsements via the mass media.25

Notwithstanding the importance of previous studies on endorsement effects, researchers have paid scant attention to factors that affect the behavior of party elites during this critical period of presidential nominations. Noticeably absent in much of the extant literature is an examination of the timing of an endorsement. The next section discusses the baseline model for this stage of the presidential nomination process.

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.